# Forecasting tournament: calibrated estimates

> Teams estimate business and general-knowledge questions with ranges and confidence levels, then see how well calibrated they really are. Duration: 2 hours 30 minutes. Group size: 10–150 people. Setting: Indoor and outdoor. Price from €45 per person. Popular locations include Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya & Belek.

URL: https://bravodays.com/en/experiences/forecasting-tournament
Last updated: 2026-10-21
Publisher: BravoDays (https://bravodays.com)

## Key facts

- **Duration:** 2 hours 30 minutes
- **Group size:** 10–150 people
- **Setting:** Indoor and outdoor
- **Physical intensity:** Low intensity
- **Price from:** €45 per person
- **Available in:** Istanbul, Ankara, Antalya & Belek

## Overview

Teams estimate business and general-knowledge questions with ranges and confidence levels, then see how well calibrated they really are.

Teams answer a series of questions, from business quantities ("how many containers pass through this port in a year?") to questions about your own market. Instead of single numbers, they give a range they are 80 percent confident contains the true answer, and a probability for yes/no forecasts.

Scores reward both accuracy and honest uncertainty: ranges that are too narrow are penalised as much as ranges that are uselessly wide. Between rounds the facilitator introduces simple techniques, such as starting from a reference class, breaking a question into parts and updating when new information arrives.

Scores are shown round by round, so each team can see for itself whether the techniques help. The debrief connects the exercise to forecasts in your business, such as sales projections, project timelines and budgets, and how to present them with honest ranges.

## What your team will practise

- Giving ranges and probabilities instead of single numbers
- Recognising overconfidence in ourselves and others
- Breaking hard questions into estimable parts
- Updating a forecast when new information arrives

## Included

- Facilitator and scoring team
- Question sets, including questions about your market on request
- Live scoring on screen or via a voting tool
- Debrief and a one-page guide to better estimates

## Not included

- Venue and catering unless booked with us

## Available in

- [Istanbul](https://bravodays.com/en/locations/istanbul)
- [Ankara](https://bravodays.com/en/locations/ankara)
- [Antalya & Belek](https://bravodays.com/en/locations/antalya-belek)
- [Muscat](https://bravodays.com/en/locations/muscat)

## Related pages

- [Strategy & decision simulations](https://bravodays.com/en/experiences?category=14)
- [All experiences](https://bravodays.com/en/experiences)
- [Get a quote](https://bravodays.com/en/get-a-quote?experience=164)