Four futures: scenario-planning workshop for your industry

The workshop starts with the forces shaping your industry over the next three to five years: customers, technology, regulation, competition, the economy and talent. The group sorts them by impact and uncertainty and selects the two most critical uncertainties. Crossing them creates four distinct, plausible futures.

Small groups then bring each future to life: what does a normal day look like for your customers, your competitors and your teams in that world? They give each scenario a name, a short story and early signals that would show it is arriving.

In the final part, the whole group tests the current strategy against the four futures. Which decisions work in all of them, which only in one, and what should you watch? The output is a short scenario booklet, a list of robust decisions and a set of signals to monitor.